But the rise of rapid home tests - and general waning of public interest in testing at all - has all but erased the ability to grasp current case counts nationwide. Tracking Covid-19 trends has always had its challenges. And IHME estimates from that time suggest that the US was in one of the worst waves of the pandemic, second only to the Omicron surge. In mid-December, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention was reporting about 500,000 cases a week. Mokdad declined to quantify an estimate for current case counts, but he said he’s been getting lots of calls and questions about Covid-19 recently - similar to what he experienced around the end of last year. “We felt that the margin of error became really too big for us to make a prediction that we could stand by and defend.” “The surveillance system was not adequate anymore to capture changes in Covid-19,” he said. It may be time to break out the masks against Covid, some experts sayĪll of the measures that factored into the model had stopped being reported or had changed in some way, said Ali Mokdad, professor of health metrics sciences and chief strategy officer of population health at the University of Washington. But the research institute paused that modeling in December.Ī mid adult female, standing outside places an N95 mask on her face for protection during the pandemic. “And we should be paying attention to it, because we are starting to see an increase.”įrom 2020 to 2022, the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation produced regular estimates of Covid-19 case rates and projections for trends. “There is more transmission out there than what the surveillance data indicates,” said Janet Hamilton, executive director of the Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists. Rates of severe disease may be staying at relatively low levels, but experts agree that there are probably more infections than the current surveillance systems can capture. “We have several folks down with Covid, unfortunately,” one health-focused nonprofit told CNN when seeking comment for this story. Here’s how to think about risk from the virus now Crowd of people huddled together, overhead view - stock photo Daly and Newton/The Image Bank RF/Getty ImagesĬovid-19 has changed and so has our immunity.
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